We are taking a break in our trade with Brazil
23. November 2022
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Less coffee next year – Coffee prices expected to go up

Branch of blooming coffee tree with white flowers, bee, green leaves, close-up.

SAO PAULO/NEW YORK — Brazilian coffee farmers and experts have lowered expectations for next year’s crop in the world’s largest coffee-producing country after a largely negative trend after flowering in many of the areas they monitor.

According to them, initial expectations of an increase in output next year now look weak, with prospects accumulating for a crop that will be similar to that harvested this year.
A larger production in Brazil next season was expected by most international traders. That has been one of the factors behind a recent drop in arabica coffee benchmark prices.

“We expected an increase in crop yields (for 2023), but we changed our minds after the flowering development,” said Paulo Armelin, who grows 220 hectares of coffee in the Cerrado Mineiro area.

He said trees failed to convert to fruit many of the flowers that appeared when the rains returned in October, possibly because they weren’t healthy enough after a very dry winter in Brazil.

4% up since last week (46)

We still have some coffee on contract, so for our part this makes no difference when it comes to Brazilian coffee, but smaller crops in Brazil result in higher prices on the world market because Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producing country.

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